News list for "Panson Macro"
Pansenmacro believes that September appears to be the last chance for the European Central Bank to lower interest rates in the euro area. The ECB kept its key interest rate at 2.00% at its last meeting held in July, and investors now mostly expect that the ECB will not cut rates next month either. Pansenmacro believes that this could change if consumer price inflation in August is lower than expected. Eurozone CPI data will be released next week. Meanwhile, inflation could spike further as energ...
Melanie Debono of Panson Macro wrote in a report that although eurozone inflation showed no signs of easing, the European Central Bank could still cut interest rates again in September. The data showed that the annual inflation rate in the euro zone remained unchanged at 2.0% in July, and the core inflation rate was also stable. Debono said that euro zone inflation is likely to pick up again in the remaining months of the year as food inflation accelerates and the impact of the base effect of oi...
Samuel Tombs, an analyst at Panson Macro, said the Fed will soon be concerned about "an oversupply of labor and unpopular weak wage growth." He said the increase in job openings in the November JOLTS report was a surprise, but there are signs that employment costs are cooling. Tombs noted that the drop in the quit rate from 2.1% to 1.9% "indicates a sharper slowdown in [employment cost] growth." "So two straight months of 0.4% growth in average hourly earnings looks like noise around a trend tha...
Samuel Toms, an analyst at Panson Macro, said in a note that the Fed was "stalling" until the fiscal outlook became clearer. He said the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected, and the statement was almost a "copy" of what it said in September. Still, Toms said Fed officials will have to make an interim assessment of the outlook for new fiscal policy next month, when they release a summary of their quarterly economic forecasts. Panson Macro expects the Fed to cut rates by a furth...
